Mentionsy

This month, the talk across the region's capitals has been the election of Donald Trump.

Aby zrozumieć, co mówi region o powrotu Donalda Trumpa do White House, będę rozmawiał z dwoma dziennikarzami dzisiaj.

General public in Ukraine was closely watching the election process in the United States and taking into account the statements Trump made like for the whole period of the full-scale invasion and the people who support him and politicians connected to him.

The mood has become more alarming because there is this general perception that Trump's policy would be much different from Biden's policy in terms of diminishing support to Ukraine.

Opinions again from common Ukrainians, not from expert society or from officials who expressed small hopes about Trump's administration and even expressed more dissatisfaction from his side.

I want to talk about some of those statements by Trump's allies in the US, potential members of his administration.

And so I just wonder how is the government of Ukraine responding to Trump's win?

Looking very closely to the statements of public officials, I observed that the statements are very, very, let's say, rational, and president himself says that we have the dialogue with Trump.

Now we'll talk about some people that have been chosen by Trump, one in particular in a moment.

And so I just wonder, do you think Trump is reflecting this mentality in the US?

So I just wonder, given that, given that he has a mandate now, a pretty significant mandate, do you think there's really any hope going forward for more support from Trump?

And regarding Trump's position and his way of dealing with what the American society asks, it's quite a tricky issue and a very ambiguous one because it is very difficult to judge and to make any prognosis on what his real actions would be like.

It's very difficult to make any predictions because even these statements that were made over these months by the Trump's future officials and his supporters.

Like Mike Pompeo, for example, told that Trump wouldn't fail Ukraine because he doesn't want to be recorded in history as the one who lost to Russia.

We don't know what is Trump's position.

What you were saying there about not being sure, and you're right, we don't know what Trump really has planned or people around him, what they will convince him of, but we did get some news at the end of the month.

Trump has tapped Keith Kellogg to serve as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

In Trump's first term, Kellogg was Chief of Staff and Executive Secretary of the National Security Council.

I just want to kind of clarify here, the institute's about page says it's a quote, non-profit, non-partisan research institute, but at the same time its name is a slogan of the president-elect Donald Trump, you know, America first.

I want to get your take on some things here because it lays out some reasoning that could underlie Trump administration policies next year.

But again, like I do think it is interesting to peer into the head of this person who has been tapped by Trump to

We have quite a number of days ahead before Trump takes office.

Actually, these threats are aimed to undermine Trump's attempts to resolve the war.

I'm just saying what Ukrainian officials say and Zelenski said that Trump has these plans to effectively resolve the situation and all these actions and words pronounced by Putin are aimed just to undermine these attempts and to ruin all the Trump's endeavour.

Even though the situation looks threatening and Trump wants Europe to be more responsible for European affairs and the United States abstent from European issues and focusing on domestic issues, like for Europe

Even though I would assume that it didn't take this threat very seriously and didn't get ready for Trump's presidency the way it should have been done, still for Europe it's the test of maturity, I'd say.

If you'd like to hear more Ukrainian perspectives on Donald Trump's election win and the future of the war in Ukraine, you can listen to Explaining Ukraine.

An episode from earlier this month covers Ukrainian reactions to Donald Trump's win.

It's titled Trump's election and its impact on Ukraine with Natalia Kominio.

But within Poland, parties differ in their approach to Donald Trump.

Daniel, nasz ostatni gość opowiadał o tym, jak Ukraina otrzymała wiadomość o wygraniu Donalda Trumpa w wyborach prezydenckich w USA.

Jak jest generalny mood w Polsce teraz z powrotem Trumpa?

Jest wiele niebezpieczeństw o tym, co oznacza zwycięstwo Trumpa dla regionu.

Podczas poprzedniej prezydencji Trumpa był generalnie blisko Polski i wsparł Polskę.

But that was when Poland was under a different conservative government that was ideologically close to Trump.

So, Trump made a very well received visit to Poland, certainly well received on the more conservative side of Polish politics when he was president.

He also developed a good relationship with the former ruling Law and Justice Party, which is aligned with Duda and which is a national conservative party and enjoys a similar kind of ideology and approach and style in many ways to Trump.

And both under Trump, but also subsequently under Biden, and also previously under Obama, there have been positive developments in the US military presence in Poland, which have been well received in Poland itself.

How are these two camps receiving the prospect of Trump 2.0?

So there is a real hope within law and justice that Trump's victory and his return to the White House will provide momentum to them politically in Poland as well, in particular in next year's vital presidential elections in Poland.

But from reading your analysis this month, there is one major difference and that's how Donald Tusk and his opponents in the Law and Justice Party view Donald Trump, as you know we were talking about.

So what has Tusk been saying about Donald Trump?

In the past over the last year or two they've often expressed negative sentiment towards Trump.

Earlier this year Tusk warned that Trump would be as president close to Russia and could abandon Ukraine.

Let's hear that clip of Donald Tusk speaking about Donald Trump.

W tamtym czasie on stwierdził, że Trump miał małą szansę na powrót do prezydencji w USA.

He also claimed that findings by US investigations have concluded that Trump is dependent upon Russia or the Russian services, special secret services as he said and so effectively

This echoed a lot of the rhetoric that was used by Tusk's camp in the past, suggesting that Donald Trump is at best overly sympathetic towards Russia, and at worst is dependent on Russia, somehow working with Russia, which they suggested would be against not only Ukraine's interests, but also against Poland's interests as well.

It really seems to echo Trump's Muslim ban in my mind and, you know, that was a 2017 measure

And so much of his rhetoric about protecting the border on the east with Belarus is compatible with the kind of rhetoric that Donald Trump has been using regarding the southern border of the United States.

Ale na koniec dnia, prawo i sprawiedliwość też się przyzwyczai do Trumpa.

As Tusk was pointing out, but if Trump tightens the screws economically or security-wise, does that feed into perhaps the popularity of Law and Justice, a party that is more Trump-friendly long term?

So I think much will depend on Trump's approach to Poland and to Ukraine as well.

And the question will be whether Trump, because he feels more ideologically sympathetic with Poland's opposition or injustice, whether that weakens relations with the current government or alternatively whether

Trump widzi to jako bardziej transakcjonalne porozumienie, i że musi pracować z kimkolwiek partią, która jest w państwie w tym czasie, bez względu na to, z kim może mieć bliższe personalne lub ideologiczne przyjaźni.

My suspicion is that Trump, despite much of his rhetoric, is generally a pragmatist and he also has shown many times he has no problem working with people who have been critical of him in the past.

Vance, has said some very offensive things about Trump in the past, but he was picked as his running mate on this ticket and they're working together now.

Any previous critical rhetoric towards Trump of Poland's current ruling camp won't necessarily mean much to the new US administration.

I think for Trump what matters is the pragmatic side of things of what he can get from this relationship.

Daniel Tilles, What are you going to be watching for when it comes to the relationship between the Trump administration and Poland?

I think much will hinge on the great unknown, which is what Trump's policy towards Ukraine and Russia will be.

If Trump is sympathetic towards Russia, if he seeks to impose a peace on Ukraine that Ukraine does not want.