Jacek Bartosiak & Albert Świdziński of Strategy&Future, a think tank based in Warsaw discuss the recent escalation in the Eastern Europe and NATO Eastern Flank (Video)

We encourage you to read Strategy and Future's latest report by Jacek Bartosiak and Wojciech J. Kittel, Krolewiat Kaliningrad campaign, the capacity for asymmetric escalation. The link is available in the description below. Subscribe and support us on Petronite.pl. Hi, my name is Jacek Bartosiak. Welcome to Strategy and Future podcast. Today with me is Albert Świdziński, director of analysis of Strategy and Future. We represent a think tank based in Warsaw. Poland and we are discussing the current events of unfolding systemic war. We talk about strategic implications and especially during this podcast we'll be discussing the recent events in the East, meaning escalation, ladder, escalation, dominance,

Pursuit by both Russia and Ukraine, attacks against Moscow, attacks against Kiev and the recent developments in Poland and elsewhere in the region of NATO Eastern Flank where the leaders were debating and warning the societies about the possibility of drone and missile attacks and involving Poland, for example. These are the words of the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. into this kind of hybrid warfare and that the society must be prepared. Okay, so maybe the floor is yours. Albert, since all agencies are providing information what was told, the details of what's going on, let's not discuss it, let's just jump right away to strategic conclusions and the questions that of course must be posed at this stage.

Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future, Warszawa. You had Tusk in his last Thursday delivering a very stark statement on the one hand, on the other this was the first time he was more specific than before. He basically said we could be looking at drone and missile attacks in Poland against the infrastructure, mainly rail infrastructure and border crossings.

That is a war that's supposed to change the security architecture in Europe. It's clearly trying to deny Russia a sphere of influence that it wants to claim. It is hardly surprising, especially if you look at Iran and the benefits of horizontal escalation. It's hardly surprising that you're looking at potential entanglement and spillover from the conflict. And I think it more than anything shows that the elites are not really willing to confront the reality, especially when the reality says someone may die, things might burn. Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future, Warszawa. Names mentioned in Warsaw discuss the recent escalation in the Eastern Europe and NATO Eastern Flank Video.

Names mentioned in Warsaw discuss the recent escalation in the Eastern Europe and NATO Eastern Flank Video. Nie ma znaczenia. Było to zmienione. To była świetna wypowiedź, ale nie zgadzam się z tym. Zgadza mi się, że ciągle było mówienie, że wojna nadchodzi. To były bardzo błyskawiczne stwierdzenia. I jest prawda, że było to mówienie, że nie ma znaczenia, że jest nadchodzący ogromny niebezpieczeństw. Jacek Bartosiński, Strategy Future, Warszawa.

Nie wiem jak to powiedzieć, ale miałeś ten głęboki skutek z tym, że wszystko jest w porządku. I myślę, że to w końcu sprowadza się do ludzi, którzy nie wiedzą jak uruchomić escalację. To było również tak, pamiętasz, z USA i Ukrainią. Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future, Warszawa. Names mentioned in Warsaw discuss the recent escalation in the Eastern Europe and NATO Eastern Flank Video. Names mentioned in Warsaw discuss the recent escalation in the Eastern Europe and NATO Eastern Flank Video. It also stems from this ideological drift of resulting from conviction that the West is better intellectually, morally, materially and so they don't need to have any kind of escalation ladder with someone who is not even entitled to have the ladder.

So, and that's a, that's a downside of the collective alliance. If you put the pressure in terms of this hybrid, whatever this objective means, and then the only outcome and the only reciprocity or the only, you know, kind of, the only thing that stems from it is just more appeals to others and this Jacek Bartosiński, Strategy Future, Warszawa.

NATO should be appealed to in that respect because more appeals will diminish its role. Second, whether Poland has really deterrence by punishment capabilities that are independent from the players who don't want to be involved because they will want, they will have an interest in de-escalating person for most United States and other Western allies. And this is what we were lambasting for the last couple of years here at Strategy Future, that Poland should pursue its own indigenous long-range fires, long deep strike capabilities to control escalation ladder or at least to survive on the escalation ladder up to nuclear threshold with Russia, just like Ukrainians do in a way.

Jacek Bartosiński, Strategy Future, Warszawa. Names mentioned in Polish. Names mentioned in Polish. Names mentioned in Polish. Names mentioned in Polish.

And this made all the NATO states, the US included, share to an extent a risk assessment between them. Because again, regional hegemony in Europe could have threatened continental US. At least theoretically it would have created a very powerful entity in the international arena. And this basically meant the NATO members had a shared risk assessment and stakes of the conflict were similar. And now this really isn't the case. Russia is a limited threat. The decision to enlarge NATO in the 90s, which was criticized by everybody who knew strategy in the US, by Gaddis, by Kennan.

Secretaries of State quit their post in protest. Again, Poland was a great beneficiary. We were Polish, so I like the idea. But we cannot deny that Jacek Bartosiński, Strategy Future, Warszawa. Jacek Bartosiński, Strategy Future, Warszawa.

It is negotiating as if an intermediary so that it could detach Russia from China and paying for this detachment with Ukrainian interests and maybe Poland's interests in the intermarium. The United States pretends it has the cards, while Zawieński and the Ukrainians are showing that they don't. So then the US has a Polish card, the cards called Poland. And you know, when they negotiate the strategic space with Russians, US, and this is a blasphemy what I'm going to say now, what I'm about to say, in this new geopolitical phase, where US is trying to win favors of Russia and end this war,

By in a way inviting Russia back into the international system, but underpinned by the US. So US is playing above its weight, above its capabilities by manipulating security issues. So the US soldiers in Europe and especially in Poland Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future. Thanks to which Poland cannot control its escalation and is a card to be played because US is capable of manipulating the security, which is a vague term.

It's a very dangerous thing, I'm quite confident. In general you look at two issues in alliance systems when you have a symmetry in power between one state and the other. Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future. Those countries are interested in not allowing themselves to be entrapped in a potential conflict, not allowing Poland to respond, to really attempt a deterrent by punishment, which in this case would mean sort of replying in kind, responding in kind to any Russian attack.

Znowu, szczególnie, że Stanach Zjednoczonych teraz w zasadzie skieruje swoją credibilność Jacek Bartosiński, Strategy Future, Warszawa. Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future, Warszawa

The second thing is, and if that's true, then for the Polish statecraft it means that the United States presence in certain scenarios of hybrid warfare and Russian probing strategy, US presence is a liability, is a burden. I'm not saying that we should jettison it, On the contrary, we should simply tune in our mindset and intellectual life to manipulate the Americans as well. Not to take them as, you know, manipulate their presence. Change our posture and how we approach their presence. That, again, in certain conditions is a liability.

And that goes across the nature of NATO Alliance and the procurement that was done over the last couple of years. Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future, Warszawa. Nawet na ziemiach, nawet Rosja próbuje powstrzymać swoją sferę wpływu. Zajmuje się ogromnymi problemami.

Ale moje pytanie jest takie. Those are all issues we have to contend with. It's a short one, those podcasts. I wanted to ask you what do you think will happen and that's question number one. Question number two is how should we respond and question number three is how will we respond. I think that the coming scenario will be highly dependent upon Poland's behavior now and preparations. If we do not change the way we prepare, if we don't want to change the understanding of the situation, The Russians will be increasing probing strategy by creating provocations and checking our political cohesion and capabilities.

And depending on the situation in the Persian Gulf and the US bond markets, elsewhere in Ukraine, they will create incidents and they will create tensions. They are choosing where they will be winning, both the PR war, propaganda war. Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future, Warszawa. This is why at Strategy Future, as you know, we've been proposing the change of this posture for many, many years to no avail. We need to create the advanced forward positioned mercenaries

Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future, Warszawa Things have to change. We need to also change how we recruit to the forces. It has to be more agile, more dispersed and ready for offensive action below the threshold of Article 5 without looking at our allies.

Jacek Bartosiński, Świdziński Albert, Strategy Future, Warszawa So those two do point to Russia qualitatively changing its behavior and being more aggressive. Again, there is always this risk of unlikely decision being made by NATO or by NATO countries. The 1914 situation where you actually get escalation where there shouldn't be, where there shouldn't supposed to be one. Again, this is a very different reality than 1914.

You will get deep concern, but you will not get an attempt to impose costs on Russia and then the winter will end. Okay, thanks Albert. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. That was our podcast. Albert Świdziński, Jacek Bartosiak. Stay with us at Strategy Future on YouTube, on our website. We keep providing strategic kind of perspective on the changing geopolitical landscape and the systemic war that is raging across the world. Take care. Thanks.